A new study conducted by researchers at the University of Connecticut has revealed a correlation between the prevalence of particular clades of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the growth rate of the associated illness coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Researchers found that models of early COVID-19 growth dynamics that included the different clades the virus has mutated into significantly improved growth rate predictions.
Including clades in the models was also more important than incorporating the SARS-CoV-2 variant D614G, which has been associated with increased viral load and infectivity.
More specifically, a higher prevalence of the clades 19A and 19B, which emerged during the Wuhan outbreak, correlated with lower growth rates. Higher prevalence of the clades 20A and 20C, which emerged from 19A and was prominent early on in the European outbreak, correlated with higher growth rates.
The researchers say that without intervention, COVID-19 has the potential to grow more quickly in regions dominated by the 20A and 20C clades, which includes most of South and North America.
Original study can be found on the medRxiv server and is currently under peer review: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.29.20202416v1
American debt to exceed GDP in 2021
The United States is projected to hold about $21 trillion in debt in 2021, and that number is expected to increase to $32 trillion by 2030. A $1.9 trillion stimulus bill represents a fraction of that increase, although White House officials have also discussed trying to approve a multitrillion-dollar infrastructure package later this year. The CBO projections also assume the expiration of numerous provisions of the 2017 GOP tax law aimed at the lower and middle class by the middle of this decade.
Marc Goldwein, senior vice president at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which pushes for deficit reduction, said lawmakers face a long-term challenge in getting spending and deficit levels to balance. That is not something that hinges on the precise size of Biden’s stimulus package, Goldwein said.
“Even without the $1.9 trillion [stimulus], we will be at record-high debt levels” in a few years, he said. “Realistically, it’s going to come much sooner than that.”
Source: Washington Post