The CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks in November from 47 modeling groups. Of the 47 groups, 42 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, three groups forecasted total deaths only, and two forecasted new deaths only. The national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 3,900 to 10,000 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending November 21, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 243,000 to 256,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by November 21, 2020.
Opioid epidemic in one chart – correlation conflated with causation
There is no cause-and-effect relationship between prescribing and overdose mortality. But millions of patients are being denied safe and effective pain care.
Seniors over age 62 are prescribed opioids for pain three times more often than youth under age 19. But youth have overdose rates three times higher than seniors. No medical model can explain these demographics.
Source: Richard A Lawhern, PhD, Patient Advocate