The University of Washington institute’s model, which is one of several the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention uses to track the pandemic, has been criticized for often including high degrees of uncertainty, which can lead to imprecise predictions. Early on, the model underestimated the number of Covid-19 deaths nationwide, projecting that the U.S. could hit 60,415 by the end of August.
Still, the model is updated frequently, and refinements are made as data on case numbers, hospitalizations and a host of other factors become available. By June, the institute’s model was estimating that the U.S. death toll could hit 200,000 by Oct. 1, a projection that ended up being accurate to within two weeks.
American debt to exceed GDP in 2021
The United States is projected to hold about $21 trillion in debt in 2021, and that number is expected to increase to $32 trillion by 2030. A $1.9 trillion stimulus bill represents a fraction of that increase, although White House officials have also discussed trying to approve a multitrillion-dollar infrastructure package later this year. The CBO projections also assume the expiration of numerous provisions of the 2017 GOP tax law aimed at the lower and middle class by the middle of this decade.
Marc Goldwein, senior vice president at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which pushes for deficit reduction, said lawmakers face a long-term challenge in getting spending and deficit levels to balance. That is not something that hinges on the precise size of Biden’s stimulus package, Goldwein said.
“Even without the $1.9 trillion [stimulus], we will be at record-high debt levels” in a few years, he said. “Realistically, it’s going to come much sooner than that.”
Source: Washington Post